Nashville Quality Consumer

Seven stocks to watch in second half of year

The economy was still lurching in the first six months this year. But the brunt of those bad times could be behind Middle Tennessee.

“This recession started on the coasts and worked its way inland,” says Fifth Third Bank economist John Augustine. “The recovery seems to be doing the opposite. It will begin on the interior and make its way to the coast.”

Money manager Don Hays, chairman of Hays Advisory in Brentwood, said many corporations are sitting on big piles of cash, and he expects positive strides in the technology, industrial and health-care sectors in particular.

Gains may not be shared equally. In Middle Tennessee, most health care companies performed well in the first half and those gains should continue. Manufacturing, however, took a nosedive and prospects look iffy for companies tied to the housing and contruction markets.

Below are some big movers in the first-half of the year — both for good and ill — and what to expect from these high-profile stocks the next few months.

Health reform fears subside, acquisition provides a boost

It’s been a good year so far for Herb Fritch — both on the ice and in the stock market.

As a co-owner of the Nashville Predators, he watched the team advance in the National Hockey League playoffs for the first time in history this season. And, the Franklin-based managed-care company that Fritch leads as CEO rode an even hotter winning streak as shares of the stock rose 74 percent by the end of trading June 30.

HealthSpring Inc., which provides Medicare Advantage insurance plans to seniors, had the best performance among Nashville-area health care stocks. Credit improved earnings to fewer claims as plan members used medical services less; and HealthSpring’s acquisition of Bravo Health contributed to its bottom line more this year than expected.

“People are willing to pay more because the earnings are growing,” said David H. Windley, an analyst with Jefferies & Co. in Nashville, about the rise in HealthSpring’s stock price.

Investors also realize that federal health reform won’t hurt the managed-care sector as badly as once expected, Windley added.

HealthSpring also has advantages over smaller private health plans — including money from a stock offering — that could lead to consolidation opportunities. Investors are anxiously awaiting a new acquisition by Fritch and company.

Windley says: “The M&A expectations have gotten fairly optimistic.

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Congressional Record, V. 147, Pt. 8, June 12, 2001 to June 25, 2001

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